The AUD is the strongest and the USD is the weakest to start the US trading day. There was a report out of The price of oil is down sharply as the winter storms from last week across the US kept drivers off the roads. Also concerned about global demand waning as economies are slow is weighing on price levels. The price testing December 19 low levels. US yields and European yields are also sharply lower on global growth concerns. Having said looking in the rearview mirror, the Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate for fourth-quarter growth increased to 3.9% yesterday from 3.7%. Mortgage applications fell -10.3% as rates continued their move to the upside with the 30 year mortgage rate rising to 6.58%. It move closer to 6% earlier in December. Buckle up.
In France today, their estimate for inflation was lower than expected at -0.1% versus +0.5% expected. Germany reported lower preliminary CPI data yesterday at -0.8% versus -0.6% expected. The services PMI out of the EU was marginally higher but still below the 50 level at 49.8 versus 49.1 estimate.
Today starts the progression of employment statistics into the US nonfarm payroll release on Friday where expectations are for 200 K versus 263K last month. The JOLTS job openings will be released at at 10 AM with estimates of 10.04M vs 10.33M last month. A lower number, a lower quits rate, a higher separations rate would all be considered more bearish for the economy. Also at 10 AM today, the US ISM Manufacturing index is expected to come in at 48.5 versus 49.0 last month.
The Fed minutes will be released at 2 PM. The Fed at the last meeting increased rates by 50 bps as they slowed the pace of the hikes. They did raise the terminal rate to 5.1% from 4.6% in their September guesstimate.
The US House will continue to try and elect a Speaker of the House. The GOP failed yesterday as the party remains fragmented.
A look at other markets as US traders enter for the day shows:
- Spot gold is up $14.86 or 0.81% at $1853.86
- spot silver is up $0.13 or 0.56% at $24.13
- WTI crude oil is down $2.63 at $74.30
- Bitcoin is trading at $16,815. The low for the day came in at $16,652. The high for the day has reached $16,906
In the premarket for US stocks, the major indices are trading marginally higher after yesterday’s down day to start the new trading year
- Dow Industrial Average up 48 points after yesterday’s -10.88 point decline
- S&P index up 6.6 points after yesterday’s -15.36 point decline
- NASDAQ index up 41 points after yesterday’s -79.50 point decline
In the European equity markets,, the major indices are higher:
- German DAX +1.53%
- Francis CAC +1.56%
- UK’s 100 +0.45%
- Spain’s Ibex +1.34%
- Italy’s FTSE MIB +1.3%
- Stoxx 600 +1.02%
in the Asian Pacific market:
- Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index rose 3.22%
- New Zealand 50 rose 1.0%
- Australia’s S&P/ASX rose 1.63%
- Shanghai Composite index increased 0.22%
In the US debt market, yields are sharply lower with the tenure down 10 basis points on the day:
In the European debt market the benchmark 10 year yields are also sharply lower with yields down -8.5 to -13.0 basis points: