Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate for Q4 growth rises to 3.4%

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate for Q4 growth moved up to 3.4% from up from 2.8% on December 1. The dichotomy between some of the numbers like this and the ISM services report from yesterday, and the perception of a recession/slower growth/slower inflation has traders and central banks alike scratching their heads and wondering which way “Humpty Dumpty will fall”.

In the Atlanta Fed’s own words:

“The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2022 is 3.4 percent on December 6, up from 2.8 percent on December 1. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the Institute for Supply Management, increases in the nowcasts of fourth-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and fourth-quarter real government spending growth from 3.2 percent and 0.8 percent, respectively, to 3.7 percent and 1.1 percent, respectively, were slightly offset by a decrease in the nowcast of fourth-quarter gross private domestic investment growth from 2.0 percent to 1.7 percent. Also, the nowcast of the contribution of the change in real net exports to fourth-quarter real GDP growth increased from 0.16 percentage points to 0.37 percentage points.”

The next estimate will be on December 9.