- The index manages to leave behind part of the recent strong decline.
- US yields kicks in the week on the defensive across the curve.
- FOMC’s L.Brainard is due to speak later in the NA session.
The dollar appears somewhat bid at the beginning of the week and briefly revisits the 107.00 neighbourhood when gauged by the USD Index (DXY).
USD Index refocuses on 107.00 and above
Following two consecutive and strong daily pullbacks, the index now attempts a moderate rebound to the 107.00 region on the back of a tepid selling bias in the risk complex.
The dollar’s rebound comes in contrast with a small drop in US yields across the curve, as market participants continue to reprice a potential Fed’s pivot sooner rather than later.
So far, and according to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 50 bps interest rate hike at the December 14 meeting is at nearly 81%, from around 60% a week ago and nearly 37% a month ago.
The US calendar is empty on Monday, leaving all the attention to the discussion on the Economic Outlook by Fed’s Vice Chair L.Brainard (permanent voter, dove).
What to look for around USD
The index attempts a mild bounce to the vicinity of the 107.00 region and partially leaves behind the post-CPI bearish move to the 106.30/25 band.
In the meantime, investors’ repricing of a probable pivot in the Fed’s policy now emerges as a fresh and quite reliable source of weakness for the dollar, in line with a corrective decline in US yields across the curve.
Key events in the US this week: Producer Prices (Tuesday) – MBA Mortgage Applications, Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Business Inventories, NAHB Index, TIC Flows (Wednesday) – Building Permits, Initial Jobless Claims, Housing Starts, Philly Fed Index (Thursday) – CB Leading Index, Existing Home Sales (Friday).
Eminent issues on the back boiler: US midterm elections. Hard/soft/softish? landing of the US economy. Prospects for further rate hikes by the Federal Reserve vs. speculation of a recession in the next months. Fed’s pivot. Geopolitical effervescence vs. Russia and China. US-China persistent trade conflict.
USD Index relevant levels
Now, the index is gaining 0.19% at 106.62 and faces the next up barrier at 109.08 (100-day SMA) seconded by 110.95 (55-day SMA) and then 113.14 (monthly high November 3). On the flip side, the breakdown of 106.28 (monthly low November 11) would open the door to 104.83 (200-day SMA) and finally 104.63 (monthly low August 10).