We have the Fed’s Brainard speaking today and Powell tomorrow — the two top policymakers — so I would find it odd to leak the decision to the WSJ now.
That said, it’s certainly moving the market and rate hike odds. It’s now seen as 81% likely that the Fed hikes by 75 bps this month versus 68% on Tuesday.
That’s after the WSJ’s Nic Timiraos wrote:
“The Federal Reserve appears to be on a path to raise interest rates by another 0.75 percentage point this month in the wake of Chairman Jerome Powell’s public pledge to reduce inflation even if it increases unemployment.”
Leaking a previous decision to temper volatility was a bit of a deal with the devil because now every word from Timiraos is seen as a leak.
The story cites public comments and is based on the idea that they’ve done little to push back against 75 bps. More important will be comments from Brainard, which are due in an hour at 1235 pm ET.