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Canadian dollar shrugs off lowest oil settlement since January

tradingfxdaily by tradingfxdaily
August 16, 2022
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Canadian dollar shrugs off lowest oil settlement since January
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WTI crude oil roses as high as $90.65 today but with an Iran nuclear deal now looking more likely, it crumbeld to $86.17. That’s the lowest since January.

Yet the loonie is higher today and much stronger than its commodity cousins in Australia and New Zealand. To be fair, some of that is catch-up from CAD underperformance but it’s unusual to see the loonie at the top of the FX leaderboard on a day with oil down nearly 4%.

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Part of the answer lies in natural gas. Henry Hub is up 7% today in part due to a German denial about shutting down nuclear. But gas has rediscovered some momentum and at $9.32 this would be a new high close for the cycle.

Natural gas daily

Combine that with the strong mood for risk assets and the loonie has shrugged off the oil drop.

USD/CAD is down 73 pips on the day to 1.2832. That’s in the middle of the recent range but at the 61.8% retracement of Monday’s gain.

I don’t think CAD can disconnect from oil for long so the dynamic will be worth watching closely. But there’s a growing sentiment that Canada is well-positioned for the next economic cycle. Power is plentiful in the country and its natural gas supplies are bountiful. If there’s a boom in mining, it also stands to benefit.

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EURUSD=X 
$1.08  -0.22%  
EURCAD=X 
$1.46  0.29%  
EURJPY=X 
$141.24  -0.16%  
GBPUSD=X 
$1.23  -0.29%  
EURNZD=X 
$1.68  0.40%  
AUDUSD=X 
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CADUSD=X 
$0.7437  -0.45%