What’s priced in for the FOMC ahead of Waller’s speech

Comments from Fed Governor Chris Waller are coming up at 10:50 am ET.

He’s a noted hawk and his most-recent comments were on July 29 when he said a soft landing is a plausible outcome for the US labor market.

His more-important sent of comments were on July 14 when he launched — I believe — the big rally in equities by taking 100 bps of the table.

His comments today could be a big market mover.

RIght now the market is pricing in a 40% chance of 75 bps in Sept and 60% chance of 50 bps. The terminal top is 3.62% in March 2023.

I don’t see a big scope for a Fed shift right now as they have lots of time to collect data aehad of the Sept 21 FOMC.