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Poof.. Just like that and the aussie gains evaporate

tradingfxdaily by tradingfxdaily
June 7, 2022
in Forex
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Poof.. Just like that and the aussie gains evaporate
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AUD/USD is back lower than before the RBA announced its 50 bps rate hike earlier, falling to 0.7170 from a high of 0.7245. You might be wondering, what gives? I shared some thoughts earlier:

“The question for the aussie now is whether or not it can sustain gains and build a more bullish run. I’m still skeptical despite the RBA surprise. A lot of rate hikes are already priced in to the front-end, with cash rate futures expecting the RBA to hike to 3% by February next year. In that sense, the more aggressive tone now is much needed to vindicate that pricing into being a reality.

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“For now, the aussie likes what it sees from the RBA but as mentioned earlier going into decision, gains may be fleeting and more tempered with as long as risk sentiment remains more dour on the day.

“US futures are still keeping lower with S&P 500 futures down 0.6% at the moment. The selling in  equities 
Equities

Equities can be defined as stocks or shares in a company that investors can buy or sell. For example, when you buy a stock, you are purchasing equity, thereby becoming a partial owner of shares in a specific company or fund.Equities do not pay a fixed interest rate, and as such are not considered guaranteed income. Consequently, equity markets are often associated with risk.When a company issues bonds, it’s taking loans from buyers. When a company offers shares, on the other hand, it’s selling partial ownership in the company.Equities have become a popular form of investing. Despite their risk, there are many reasons for individuals investing in equities. Equity holders can also benefit through dividends, as these differ notably from capital gains or price differences in stocks you have purchased.Dividends reflect periodic payments made from a company to its shareholders. They’re taxed like long-term capital gains, which vary by country. Why are Equities so Popular?In the United States and many developed countries, equity markets are amongst the largest in terms of transactions, investors, and turnover, adding to their growing popularity in recent decades.The appeal of equities is the potential for high returns. Most portfolios feature some portion of equity exposure for growth, which as mentioned also carries a larger degree of risk.Equities are also popular with younger investors who can largely afford to take on higher levels of equity exposure, i.e. risk. As such, these individuals have more stocks in their portfolio because of their potential for returns over time. However, individuals looking to retire or rely on a more stabilized and risk-averse portfolio often reduce their equity exposure.This stance is hardly novel and can explain trading habits among many investors. For example, holders of retirement accounts typically will shift at least a portion of their investments from stocks to bonds or fixed-income as they get older.

Equities can be defined as stocks or shares in a company that investors can buy or sell. For example, when you buy a stock, you are purchasing equity, thereby becoming a partial owner of shares in a specific company or fund.Equities do not pay a fixed interest rate, and as such are not considered guaranteed income. Consequently, equity markets are often associated with risk.When a company issues bonds, it’s taking loans from buyers. When a company offers shares, on the other hand, it’s selling partial ownership in the company.Equities have become a popular form of investing. Despite their risk, there are many reasons for individuals investing in equities. Equity holders can also benefit through dividends, as these differ notably from capital gains or price differences in stocks you have purchased.Dividends reflect periodic payments made from a company to its shareholders. They’re taxed like long-term capital gains, which vary by country. Why are Equities so Popular?In the United States and many developed countries, equity markets are amongst the largest in terms of transactions, investors, and turnover, adding to their growing popularity in recent decades.The appeal of equities is the potential for high returns. Most portfolios feature some portion of equity exposure for growth, which as mentioned also carries a larger degree of risk.Equities are also popular with younger investors who can largely afford to take on higher levels of equity exposure, i.e. risk. As such, these individuals have more stocks in their portfolio because of their potential for returns over time. However, individuals looking to retire or rely on a more stabilized and risk-averse portfolio often reduce their equity exposure.This stance is hardly novel and can explain trading habits among many investors. For example, holders of retirement accounts typically will shift at least a portion of their investments from stocks to bonds or fixed-income as they get older.
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alongside the key technical level (100-day moving average at 0.7228) are strong arguments to keep aussie gains in check for the time being.”

It’s a tough spot for the aussie so long as risk sentiment remains rather iffy and Treasury yields are continuing to surge. That invites more flows into the dollar and will keep risk trades at bay for the most part. The aussie is no exception to that.

Throw in the fact that this “aggressive” 50 bps rate hike merely reinforces what markets had already priced in at the front-end, and you would find that the hawkish undertones are more of a necessity than any general extension from what is priced in.

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