GBPUSD continues the run to the downside and below the 50% midpoint of 2Y trading range

On Friday, the pair moved down to test its 50% midpoint of the trading range since the March 2020 low (see daily chart above). That level comes in at 1.28288. The pair closed just above that level at 1.28309 on Friday.

Today, that level was broken earlier in the session and trended lower. The next major target on the daily chart comes in at the September 23 2020 low at 1.26737. Below that and there are other swing area down to 1.2634 (see red numbered circles and yellow swing area).

Drilling all the way down to the 5 minute chart below, the trend move to the downside over the last two days has been able to fall and stay below the falling 100 bar moving average (blue line in the chart below).

That moving average currently comes in at 1.27504 (and moving lower). Note the number of times today that the price moved toward that level only to find willing sellers. Sellers like to keep the pressure on during a trending market.

In the short term, the tilt to the downside could see more corrective upside action IF that moving average can be broken followed by a break above the falling 200 bar moving average currently at 1.2784. Absent that, and the buyers are not winning. The sellers are still in firm control.

REMEMBER….trending markets are fast, directional and tend to go farther than traders expect.

They also like to trap countertrend traders and make them hurt.

A benchmark clue that the bottom may be in place is a move back above the shorter-term moving averages (100 and 200 bar MA on the 5-minute chart). A move above and stay above is a signal that the trend move lower may be over (more balanced buyers and sellers). That is the minimum. Until then, the sellers are winning and don’t fight the trend.